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Bitcoin Market Analysis: Ranging Market, Potential Breakouts, and Smart Money Strategies

Bitcoin Liquidated: ANOTHER $30m GONE ...
Bitcoin Liquidated: ANOTHER $30m GONE ...

The Bitcoin market has been exhibiting a ranging pattern in recent weeks, with prices fluctuating between key support and resistance levels. This complex structure has led to both liquidity grabs and liquidations, creating uncertainty among traders.

Technical Indicators Suggest Potential Death Cross

On the hourly timeframe, Bitcoin’s price action shows a potential death cross, which occurs when the 50-Simple Moving Average (SMA) crosses below the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This technical indicator is often considered bearish, suggesting a potential downward trend.

Key Levels Await Confirmation

Bitcoin is currently trading between key levels of around 35,100 and 37,918. A breakout or breakdown from this range could signal a more decisive trend direction.

Smart Money and Elliot Wave Theory Analysis

Smart money concepts suggest both bearish and bullish scenarios, but the ranging market lacks clear confirmation for either. Elliot Wave Theory analysis also presents various possibilities, including a five-wave move to the downside or a bullish move to the upside.

Caution Advised Until Confirmation

Given the current uncertainty, traders are advised to exercise caution and wait for confirmation before making significant trading decisions. High-risk scenarios should be avoided until the market structure becomes clearer.

Daily Timeframe Shows Bullish Structure

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin exhibits a bullish structure with break of structure confirmations and testing of both high and low sides. However, complex structures and rinse-repeat liquidation cycles continue to characterize the market.

Weekly Stochastics Suggest Potential Reset

Weekly stochastics indicate oversold conditions on the daily timeframe, suggesting a potential need for resets. Despite this, the daily outlook remains bullish, with expectations of a fifth wave move towards $40,000.

Historical Perspectives and Fed Pivot Considerations

A historical perspective highlights higher highs and higher lows across Bitcoin’s history, although current market variables differ from previous cycles. Historical retracements suggest a 40-50% reduction in price before the next significant surge.

Discussions on historical Fed pivots coinciding with market movements lead to anticipation of a Fed pivot that could potentially trigger a market downturn. This presents an opportunity for potential accumulation before the next bullish surge.

Volume Profiles and Market Dynamics

Volume profiles and overbought conditions on the weekly and monthly timeframes raise caution, aligning more with bear market structures. Market makers and exchanges benefit from recent price gains, potentially impacting market dynamics. Retail investors may not be the driving force behind these gains.

Conclusion and Community Engagement

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