Bitcoin has been trading sideways and slightly declining in recent weeks, remaining below the 50-day moving average (EMA) on the one-hour time frame. This suggests that the bulls are losing momentum and the bears are gaining control.
Short-term expectations suggest either a sharp drop or a smaller downside move followed by a larger upside spike. The target range for a three-wave pattern is around $25,485 to $25,603, with a main target range of $23,207 to $24,113.
On the daily time frame, Bitcoin’s technical bullish structure is at risk due to the price dropping below the 50 EMA and 200 EMA. This could lead to a further decline to $20,000, and Bloomberg analysts suggest a possibility of even lower levels, such as $17,000.
The market sentiment is uncertain, with both bullish and bearish indications across various time frames. The weekly close position is important, with the Bulls aiming to keep the price above the 50 EMA (around $26,907) and the Bears aiming to keep it below.
Bitcoin halving events may not have directly caused previous bull markets, contrary to popular belief. On-chain data highlights the circulating supply, inflation rate, and recent mining rewards, while the market’s balance between supply and demand remains a key factor.
Here are some of the coinciding events and supply and demand factors that could affect Bitcoin’s price in the near future:
- Bitcoin halving event coincided with market reversal.
- Next halving expected to align with Bitcoin spot ETF launch.
- 19.46M Bitcoin supply in circulation.
- Wallets with 100+ BTC not accumulating, mostly trading.
- Whales (1K+ BTC) recently accumulating, but overall down 6.54% in a year.
- Very large wallets (10K+ BTC) decreasing, similar to 2018 behavior.
- Sideways movement, low liquidations, minimal volatility.
- Hobby exchange had most liquidations, but small amounts.
- Diversification strategy for exchanges in bullish markets advised.
- Short trade potential identified with entry around yesterday’s level.
- Stop loss above swing high at 26,322, target profit at 25,604.
- Potential better entry expected due to Sunday volatility.
It is important to note that this is not financial advice. The future price of Bitcoin is uncertain and could go either way. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions.
I hope this article was informative and helpful. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask.