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In this video, Cheeky Crypto host Nick takes a deep dive into the latest Bitcoin data, exploring the potential for a move to $40,000 and beyond.

Bitcoin Price Analysis (1-Hour Chart)

On the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin is currently battling support and resistance at the 50 SMA and 50 EMA. The chart shows overlapping downward movement, indicating a potential upside move. The weekly close will determine whether bullish momentum continues or if the bears gain control.

Short to Medium-Term Outlook

Nick is confident in a potential move to the upside, considering the overlapping structure to the downside. He targets a potential move up to around $39,339 on the Zed wave pattern. However, he emphasizes the importance of staying above the 200 hourly EMA for a bullish stance.

Daily Time Frame Analysis

The daily time frame resembles a diagonal pattern, suggesting a final fifth wave movement aiming for a $40,000 target. Nick sees no major concerns on the daily time frame.

Potential Corrections and Support Levels

Nick acknowledges the need for natural, healthy corrections in the market. He identifies support levels at $31,000, $29,000, and a deeper potential at $25,000. He also mentions the CME Gap at $21,000 as a critical area of interest.

Historical Price Movements and Retracements

Nick highlights historical retracement percentages in 2021 (20%, 16%, 31%) compared to 2017 (40%, 33%, 38%, 40%). He emphasizes the possibility of a 40% retracement based on Bitcoin’s historical average.

Longer-Term Perspective and Market Opportunities

Nick expects interesting developments in the next few months for Bitcoin. He views it as one of the last opportunities to enter the market before a potentially strong bull market. However, he points out that larger investors are not currently backing Bitcoin, and whale wallets are showing a reversal, reducing their positions.

Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Performance

Nick notes altcoins’ recent run, affecting Bitcoin dominance. He expects a pullback in the entire crypto market and points out specific altcoins like Solana and Chainlink performing well.

Onchain Data and Wallet Analysis

Nick discusses the impact of the upcoming halving event on the supply element and highlights the importance of understanding wallet statistics. He emphasizes that a significant portion of wallets may have minimal or no Bitcoin.

Whale and Retail Accumulation Analysis

Nick indicates that whale wallets (1,000+ Bitcoin) have seen a decrease, while retail wallets show accumulation. He stresses the significance of monitoring accumulation patterns for both whales and retail investors.

Closing Thoughts

Nick urges viewers to explore onchain data through for a more detailed analysis. He encourages critical thinking about adoption statistics and highlights the complexity beneath the surface of wallet numbers.

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